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National Economic Indicators

Research staff regularly monitors the national economy, helping the Richmond Fed grasp current conditions and their implications for monetary policy. Updated weekly, the following data is part of the information presented during policy discussions and meetings with our board of directors.

Latest Monthly Commentary

(From May 3, 2021) Last Friday's data release showed personal income soared 21.1 percent in March, the fastest monthly growth rate since the Bureau of Economic Analysis started publishing the data in 1959. The surge in income reflected fiscal support payments, with government social benefits up 96.2 percent versus February levels. However, income from wages and salaries rose 4.4 percent monthly, the fastest since the start of the pandemic. Adjusted for inflation, disposable personal income grew 23 percent monthly and is 9.4 percent higher than pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, the recovery in real personal consumption expenditures has been more gradual, rising 3.6 percent monthly, and is now 1.4 percent above pre-pandemic levels. The personal saving rate rose to 27.6 percent, the highest since last April.

The more modest growth in expenditures highlights that we're just in the first month of the spring recovery, although expectations have risen with each monthly data release. In line with that, twelve-month core PCE inflation in March remained below target, at 1.8 percent, compared to 1.4 percent in February. Looking ahead, twelve-month core inflation will look higher the next two months due to the pandemic-related dip in the core PCE price index last year. One way to see past these base effects is to look at changes over shorter periods of time. In March, core PCE grew 2.6 percent annualized over the past three months, compared to a 2.4 percent rate in February. While this was the fourth straight month of increase, the rise in inflation largely reflects temporary factors such as supply-chain disruptions, and may not indicate a persistent inflationary process, as noted in the April FOMC statement.

Achieving inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time is a central goal of the Fed, and it will take stronger inflation data to feel confident that goal is within reach. One key ingredient toward achieving the goal is rising wages. Friday's data release had optimistic news on that front with the employment cost index (ECI) for total compensation rising 0.9 percent in the first quarter. The ECI for wages and salaries rose 1 percent in the first quarter, up from 0.8 percent the prior quarter. The ECI for wages and salaries in the leisure and hospitality industry rose 1.6 percent, the fastest quarterly growth rate since the first quarter of 2017, an encouraging sign for an industry where employment levels are down over three million versus pre-pandemic levels.

Monthly commentary by John O'Trakoun updated May 3, 2021. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve System.

Charts updated June 14, 2021

View All Charts

Date,Personal Consumption Expenditure Index,Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (Excl. Food and Energy),Consumer Price Index,Core Consumer Price Index (Excl. Food and Energy)
2007-01-01,2.07297318728123,2.43149535846103,2.1,2.7
2007-02-01,2.3448025995494,2.5049137854016,2.4,2.7
2007-03-01,2.53410645055554,2.34164382951228,2.8,2.5
2007-04-01,2.31401238041645,2.19222222222222,2.6,2.3
2007-05-01,2.34646906927136,2.06640430131368,2.7,2.2
2007-06-01,2.31505852046817,1.98170900284206,2.7,2.2
2007-07-01,2.11827992991149,2.0336474201067,2.4,2.2
2007-08-01,1.86126717472326,1.97325631386902,2,2.1
2007-09-01,2.51544965754188,2.08030643243957,2.8,2.1
2007-10-01,3.05720803327818,2.14479568403819,3.5,2.2
2007-11-01,3.55573937246398,2.27986558017966,4.3,2.3
2007-12-01,3.41467217587901,2.33468582081369,4.1,2.4
2008-01-01,3.32153281026314,2.11281446540881,4.3,2.5
2008-02-01,3.21260260636768,1.99810430671009,4,2.3
2008-03-01,3.16595932315494,2.13458440370967,4,2.4
2008-04-01,3.16700767826105,2.10822741456733,3.9,2.3
2008-05-01,3.34137779727952,2.20921265572559,4.2,2.3
2008-06-01,3.85760574481128,2.25550049339075,5,2.4
2008-07-01,4.13775013934579,2.23237484843237,5.6,2.5
2008-08-01,3.98217523318551,2.20533388106332,5.4,2.5
2008-09-01,3.70616206570114,2.07672899010157,4.9,2.5
2008-10-01,2.78314272693735,1.75338575562322,3.7,2.2
2008-11-01,1.08050344336263,1.57407606244765,1.1,2
2008-12-01,0.305853211997191,1.35127894640962,0.1,1.8
2009-01-01,0.0762604455328542,1.13239020947615,0,1.7
2009-02-01,0.0696692319235115,1.13008833488214,0.2,1.8
2009-03-01,-0.323762915789583,1.00928284432319,-0.4,1.8
2009-04-01,-0.376392813349677,1.16172587102819,-0.7,1.9
2009-05-01,-0.700592318960572,1.05628938503555,-1.3,1.8
2009-06-01,-0.817909692651472,0.970317818852789,-1.4,1.7
2009-07-01,-1.2373406097497,0.911786508524823,-2.1,1.5
2009-08-01,-0.867610604596439,0.938197433971844,-1.5,1.4
2009-09-01,-0.808964714029401,0.989774791904337,-1.3,1.5
2009-10-01,0.181574419120205,1.44619580730075,-0.2,1.7
2009-11-01,1.59328513610201,1.52536997885836,1.8,1.7
2009-12-01,2.18598009426771,1.61556354408967,2.7,1.8
2010-01-01,2.35368615371406,1.74459176552686,2.6,1.6
2010-02-01,2.12932317941797,1.70998848741537,2.1,1.3
2010-03-01,2.34123751125595,1.73672659745083,2.3,1.1
2010-04-01,2.22086651254389,1.52942538656674,2.2,0.9
2010-05-01,2.11767472687233,1.53001671977035,2,0.9
2010-06-01,1.46014877789587,1.43886403260025,1.1,0.9
2010-07-01,1.5408156759399,1.35794566118521,1.2,0.9
2010-08-01,1.38379707135137,1.3035732998009,1.1,0.9
2010-09-01,1.3084962342388,1.16834893572511,1.1,0.8
2010-10-01,1.22024468118737,0.919123393878769,1.2,0.6
2010-11-01,1.15940505597309,0.949574669679198,1.1,0.8
2010-12-01,1.34594168636722,0.902110126108118,1.5,0.8
2011-01-01,1.47641717173836,1.02464979008189,1.6,1
2011-02-01,1.78603265828361,1.14021059627406,2.1,1.1
2011-03-01,2.07189843717266,1.16259774740206,2.7,1.2
2011-04-01,2.4574114986336,1.3529484946504,3.2,1.3
2011-05-01,2.74896102672543,1.49349573286933,3.6,1.5
2011-06-01,2.78819364434295,1.57583036527788,3.6,1.6
2011-07-01,2.88835865879694,1.73940052803231,3.6,1.8
2011-08-01,3.00050165126877,1.85779009868216,3.8,2
2011-09-01,3.05514080168733,1.88271541117844,3.9,2
2011-10-01,2.75669654475988,1.81014631930031,3.5,2.1
2011-11-01,2.77437186973961,1.90810169666341,3.4,2.2
2011-12-01,2.60118603300987,2.05826243877289,3,2.2
2012-01-01,2.63087192841052,2.12932293702554,2.9,2.3
2012-02-01,2.57794629793723,2.09762207893547,2.9,2.2
2012-03-01,2.35104570736613,2.10573798222321,2.7,2.3
2012-04-01,2.06327794469312,2.03762236474668,2.3,2.3
2012-05-01,1.63214573166382,1.89297303916567,1.7,2.3
2012-06-01,1.59472568680199,1.87756100544309,1.7,2.2
2012-07-01,1.44635664591724,1.81855187503181,1.4,2.1
2012-08-01,1.53721272385976,1.6664974103788,1.7,1.9
2012-09-01,1.70113172372567,1.72006129303958,2,2
2012-10-01,1.99280684869054,1.90677106576331,2.2,2
2012-11-01,1.71573583532172,1.80254035726936,1.8,1.9
2012-12-01,1.64704693578537,1.71363328651827,1.7,1.9
2013-01-01,1.47200966572695,1.59240159542322,1.6,1.9
2013-02-01,1.60010446381936,1.5537163487163,2,2
2013-03-01,1.28137000310818,1.48498448748456,1.5,1.9
2013-04-01,1.0683568131527,1.41048389522119,1.1,1.7
2013-05-01,1.25407247757005,1.42114593035483,1.4,1.7
2013-06-01,1.52957342453938,1.48977468283508,1.8,1.6
2013-07-01,1.61723716136277,1.51221364890256,2,1.7
2013-08-01,1.43199760167883,1.56526255855999,1.5,1.8
2013-09-01,1.16260535177031,1.5533031385303,1.2,1.7
2013-10-01,1.03206452638271,1.52076117679845,1,1.7
2013-11-01,1.25242284180706,1.58073688187223,1.2,1.7
2013-12-01,1.46130523385854,1.63310717514181,1.5,1.7
2014-01-01,1.46057827786709,1.52084469340208,1.6,1.6
2014-02-01,1.14583436316721,1.45567614671631,1.1,1.6
2014-03-01,1.47898826906895,1.55328663579881,1.5,1.7
2014-04-01,1.74162869031107,1.64986160537762,2,1.8
2014-05-01,1.84147476387541,1.71031322826559,2.1,2
2014-06-01,1.72880485250825,1.65225706596213,2.1,1.9
2014-07-01,1.75331274481752,1.70629646039483,2,1.9
2014-08-01,1.58320443730727,1.62670390841676,1.7,1.7
2014-09-01,1.56285390713477,1.63171079129623,1.7,1.7
2014-10-01,1.3685835357041,1.51170542331673,1.7,1.8
2014-11-01,1.13483532125853,1.44554494206076,1.3,1.7
2014-12-01,0.771077254690644,1.39378952409808,0.8,1.6
2015-01-01,0.11735482230523,1.28223908436606,-0.1,1.6
2015-02-01,0.228721116628215,1.32840103851485,0,1.7
2015-03-01,0.224370543074271,1.29474114919236,-0.1,1.8
2015-04-01,0.120742370834884,1.2895194935281,-0.2,1.8
2015-05-01,0.200260533120762,1.25145631067961,0,1.7
2015-06-01,0.291330018645118,1.26657162530428,0.1,1.8
2015-07-01,0.230781165153983,1.18008093089895,0.2,1.8
2015-08-01,0.25506740374358,1.22808036232726,0.2,1.8
2015-09-01,0.0940542217740315,1.24400711413547,0,1.9
2015-10-01,0.114448658137987,1.1791860622332,0.2,1.9
2015-11-01,0.263053163918037,1.19051064609803,0.5,2
2015-12-01,0.35390658421809,1.18279880852541,0.7,2.1
2016-01-01,0.917225076679633,1.42220765195927,1.4,2.2
2016-02-01,0.687523161241246,1.48340798535858,1,2.3
2016-03-01,0.657977983044415,1.45419572012503,0.9,2.2
2016-04-01,0.91517379549124,1.52369065335318,1.1,2.1
2016-05-01,0.832427817448001,1.54666359827019,1,2.2
2016-06-01,0.835624927379061,1.54473802660435,1,2.2
2016-07-01,0.808776580306869,1.62748643761303,0.8,2.2
2016-08-01,0.974142184129309,1.74376918002696,1.1,2.3
2016-09-01,1.24674267889838,1.70321644405832,1.5,2.2
2016-10-01,1.47547495180244,1.83931963309058,1.6,2.1
2016-11-01,1.4521937807381,1.78477790383937,1.7,2.1
2016-12-01,1.73325840954891,1.84158378110591,2.1,2.2
2017-01-01,2.01233145877091,1.88711532793976,2.5,2.3
2017-02-01,2.18117717706083,1.87651274263204,2.7,2.2
2017-03-01,1.89334235845864,1.67129598907923,2.4,2
2017-04-01,1.78676406811677,1.65402583646989,2.2,1.9
2017-05-01,1.61358606754546,1.60431342184283,1.9,1.7
2017-06-01,1.5364080699834,1.63441225290479,1.6,1.7
2017-07-01,1.51820502485558,1.52798960628141,1.7,1.7
2017-08-01,1.59034297758192,1.45266619685225,1.9,1.7
2017-09-01,1.83034176585403,1.53012851202042,2.2,1.7
2017-10-01,1.76812036966318,1.65332633512662,2,1.8
2017-11-01,1.90472555156882,1.66074991335625,2.2,1.7
2017-12-01,1.84562639874292,1.68012198658521,2.1,1.8
2018-01-01,1.80089570365873,1.69727167543762,2.1,1.8
2018-02-01,1.92324097858749,1.74225766779712,2.2,1.8
2018-03-01,2.14855797974813,2.04382284382284,2.4,2.1
2018-04-01,2.12844523135479,1.99830683499083,2.5,2.1
2018-05-01,2.36442660050944,2.10778710235035,2.8,2.2
2018-06-01,2.39646677195736,2.0674616062729,2.9,2.3
2018-07-01,2.45311200181502,2.12813308481932,2.9,2.4
2018-08-01,2.28592983779705,2.02832241990905,2.7,2.2
2018-09-01,2.0971727630627,2.07476168902614,2.3,2.2
2018-10-01,2.08262974220421,1.90857290379687,2.5,2.1
2018-11-01,1.97119526538563,2.03995135075369,2.2,2.2
2018-12-01,1.88418129283824,2.08017075616645,1.9,2.2
2019-01-01,1.47450834187715,1.84510647668156,1.6,2.2
2019-02-01,1.37173573394836,1.68769802750866,1.5,2.1
2019-03-01,1.5004134266098,1.58257341788346,1.9,2
2019-04-01,1.61683585963936,1.69100411349976,2,2.1
2019-05-01,1.49485680455857,1.60463825100802,1.8,2
2019-06-01,1.45557987679293,1.71010882510705,1.6,2.1
2019-07-01,1.53443010177248,1.74420716205419,1.8,2.2
2019-08-01,1.52216403599351,1.86545147556757,1.7,2.4
2019-09-01,1.38596184463607,1.72190469289228,1.7,2.4
2019-10-01,1.43453168651668,1.7371163867979,1.8,2.3
2019-11-01,1.43994563470563,1.58470734834668,2.1,2.3
2019-12-01,1.64467042346592,1.62139264920598,2.3,2.3
2020-01-01,1.87835256080535,1.75402245004595,2.5,2.3
2020-02-01,1.84490335128391,1.86951235985411,2.3,2.4
2020-03-01,1.34093655036064,1.65416374332128,1.5,2.1
2020-04-01,0.476238265105973,0.92651556599966,0.3,1.4
2020-05-01,0.541378053226389,1.00598394725526,0.1,1.2
2020-06-01,0.919443963986919,1.13609954055455,0.6,1.2
2020-07-01,1.00870576688901,1.25739578964276,1,1.6
2020-08-01,1.24142941470281,1.42760390675127,1.3,1.7
2020-09-01,1.35339983842711,1.52891310929458,1.4,1.7
2020-10-01,1.19590132002139,1.40064741035857,1.2,1.6
2020-11-01,1.12166284933144,1.33776588652545,1.2,1.6
2020-12-01,1.22708803611738,1.40838824687591,1.4,1.6
2021-01-01,1.37039407845506,1.43339029119337,1.4,1.4
2021-02-01,1.52233051687174,1.37198221373574,1.7,1.3
2021-03-01,2.31942700759594,1.83253254050419,2.6,1.6

GDP

Real GDP - Comparisons of most recent quarterly data
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Real GDP - Percent change from previous quarter
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Decomposition of Real GDP
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Data for charts provided through Haver Analytics
Households

Retail Sales
Source: Census Bureau
Consumer Spending and Income
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Sales of Automobiles and Light Trucks
Source: Autodata Corporation
Personal Saving Rate
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Household Net Worth
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Existing Single-Family Home Sales
Source: National Association of Realtors
New Single-Family Home Sales
Source: Census Bureau
Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits
Source: Census Bureau
Private Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits
Source: Census Bureau
Data for charts provided through Haver Analytics
Investment

Real Investment in Nonresidential Structures
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Real Private Construction Put In Place
Source: Census Bureau
Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Real Investment in Equipment
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Real Investment in Intellectual Property
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Data for charts provided through Haver Analytics
Trade

Balance of International Trade
Source: Census Bureau
Exchange Value of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Board of Governors
Data for charts provided through Haver Analytics
Manufacturing

Industrial Production
Source: Board of Governors
Capacity Utilization Rate: Manufacturing
Source: Board of Governors
Indexes of Manufacturing Activity
Source: Institute for Supply Management
Indexes of Non-Manufacturing Activity
Source: Institute for Supply Management
ISM: Business Survey Indexes
Source: Institute for Supply Management
Manufacturers' New Orders
Source: Census Bureau
Core Capital Goods
Source: Census Bureau
Business Inventory-Sales Ratios
Source: Census Bureau
Data for charts provided through Haver Analytics
Labor Market

Nonfarm Payroll Employment - Millions of persons
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Nonfarm Payroll Employment - Quarterly average of monthly changes
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unemployment Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Measures of Labor Utilization
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Non-Employment Index
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Labor Market Flows
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Labor Force Participation
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Aggregate Weekly Hours Index
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Average Hourly Earnings
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Employment Cost Index
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Labor Productivity, Nonfarm Business
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unit Labor Cost, Nonfarm Business
Source: Census Bureau
Data for charts provided through Haver Analytics
Inflation

Gauges of Inflation
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics PPI and CPI data, cmdty
Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Consumer Price Indexes
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Producer Price Indexes
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Commodity Price Indexes
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, cmdty
Crude Oil Prices
Source: Wall Street Journal, New York Merchantile Exchange
TIPS Inflation Compensation
Source: Board of Governors
Data for charts provided through Haver Analytics
Monetary Policy and Financial Markets

Federal Reserve System Assets
Source: Board of Governors
Monetary Policy Instruments
Source: Board of Governors
Real Federal Funds Rate
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Board of Governors
FOMC Statement
Source: Board of Governors
Eurodollar Futures
Source: CME Group via Bloomberg
Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Funds Rate
Source: Board of Governors
Monetary Base
Source: Board of Governors
M2
Source: Board of Governors
Money Market Rates
Source: Board of Governors, Financial Times
Capital Market Rates
Sources: Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors
Treasury Yield Curve
Source: Board of Governors
Risk Premium
Sources: Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors
Data for charts provided through Haver Analytics

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