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We study the production of goods and services in the economy, including how firms make investment decisions.

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Abhimanyu Banerjee

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Alexander Nikolov

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Boyan Jovanovic

Bruno Sultanum

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Christoph Gortz

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Claire Conzelmann

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Daniela Puzzello

David A. Price

Emily Green

Erik Loualiche

Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

Ezra Oberfield

Felipe F. Schwartzman

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Horacio Sapriza

Jacob Crouse

Janet Hua Jiang

Jason Kosakow

Jessie Romero

John Mullin

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Joseph Mengedoth

Kevin Shih

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Peter Norman

Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte

R. Andrew Bauer

Randall Wright

Richard Kaglic

Robert L. Lacy

Roisin McCord

Samira Gholami

Santiago Pinto

Sergio T. Rebelo

Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Thomas A. Lubik

Toan Phan

Tom Barkin

Valentin Haddad

Vladimir Yankov

Zach Edwards

Zhu Wang

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Working Paper

Tablet and laptop, with people shaking hands

The Impact of Immigration on Firms and Workers: Insights from the H-1B Lottery

Working Paper Series

April 2024, No. 24-04

We study how random variation in the availability of highly educated, foreign-born workers impacts firm performance and recruitment behavior.

Parag Mahajan, Nicolas Morales, Kevin Shih, Mingyu Chen and Agostina Brinatti

Article

Row of small business storefronts competing with each other.

Diverging Trends in Market Concentration

Economic Brief

February 2024, No. 24-05

Top firms entering markets don't appear to drive away local businesses.

Nicholas Trachter and Lindsay Li

Article

Stack of coins with arrows pointing upward on top to indicate inflated prices.

Inflation Expectations and Price Setting Among Fifth District Firms

Economic Brief

January 2024, No. 24-03

Even though expectations are not paramount in how most firms set their prices, there is evidence that inflation expectations matter.

Felipe F. Schwartzman and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Blog Post

Digging Into Construction Data

Macro Minute

January 16, 2024

Data from the monthly Construction Spending Report point to a sustained and robust pace of real private construction spending toward the end of 2023.

John O'Trakoun

Article

Office with many IT workers sitting in front of computers.

Did U.S. Immigration Policy Influence India’s IT Boom?

Economic Brief

December 2023, No. 23-42

Had U.S. immigration been more restrictive, the IT sectors in both the U.S. and India might have been worse off.

Gaurav Khanna and Nicolas Morales

Article

Man with safety vest examining his tablet inside of a factory.

How Domestic Outsourcing Affects the Labor Market

Economic Brief

November 2023, No. 23-36

Jobs held by temporary workers aren't included in the official tally of job creation and job destruction, which leads to significantly underestimating the magnitude of labor market flows.

Claudia Macaluso

Article

The Collateral Channel and Bank Credit

Economic Brief

October 2023, No. 23-33

What impacts can be seen based on the type of collateral used by businesses?

Arun Gupta, Horacio Sapriza and Vladimir Yankov

Article

Talking Technology-Enabled Disruption

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2023

Understanding the economic effects of technological change — and of the world-changing disruptions that new technologies may bring about — is important for central bankers.

Charles Gerena

Article

Semiconductor factory with two workers in bodysuits.

Semiconductor Industrial Policy and the Fifth District

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2023

Will the recently enacted CHIPS Act bring major growth to the region's semiconductor industry?

Matthew Wells

Article

A New Look at the Effects of Weather Shocks Over Time

Economic Brief

August 2023, No. 23-25

Severe weather shocks can have long-lasting impacts on the macroeconomy.

Toan Phan

Article

How Costly Is Rising Market Power for the U.S. Economy?

Economic Brief

July 2023, No. 23-24

A 2020 paper on market power has ignited considerable attention, follow-up and criticism.

Chen Yeh

Podcast

Men supervising movement of containers at port

Supply Chain Resilience

Speaking of the Economy

July 26, 2023

Nicolas Morales discusses his research on supply chains and the factors that can help them resist and recover from economic shocks, like the COVID-19 pandemic. Morales is an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

Illustration of lightbulb with different graphics drawn inside to indicate ideas

Innovation, Diffusion and Intellectual Property Rights

Economic Brief

July 2023, No. 23-23

How much should imitators compensate innovators for using their ideas?

Zhu Wang

Article

How Much Do Multinational Companies in the U.S. Depend on Immigrant Workers?

Economic Brief

June 2023, No. 23-21

Restrictions on immigration could cause production to shift away from the U.S. to other countries.

Nicolas Morales

Podcast

Directional signs pointing in various directions

Where are the Region's Economies Heading?

Speaking of the Economy

June 28, 2023

Andy Bauer, Renee Haltom and Matt Martin share what their business contacts have told them about regional economic conditions in the Fifth District.

Article

Partisan Conflict in the U.S. and Potential Impacts on the Economy

Economic Brief

June 2023, No. 23-20

U.S. politics have become increasingly polarized, and this polarization has impacted the economy.

Marina Azzimonti

News

Technology investment business leader perspective panel, featuring Nicole Thomas, Colin Connolly, and Andrew Young, moderated by Paula Tkac.

Bank Technology Conference Highlights Disruption, Innovation and the Economy

June 5, 2023

Richmond Fed Research Director Kartik Athreya shares takeaways from the annual Technology-Enabled Disruption Conference, co-hosted by the Richmond, Atlanta and Dallas Feds.

Article

an illustration of a figure pushing a cart up a line chart

How Well Do Firms Retain Customers After Price Increases?

Economic Brief

May 2023, No. 23-16

Firm productivity plays a role in how many customers a firm loses after a price increase.

Samira Gholami and Nicholas Trachter

Blog Post

Rough Road Ahead for Auto Sales

Macro Minute

May 16, 2023

While auto sales have been trending up over the past several months, we'll look into a couple of reasons why the future may not be so bright.

John O'Trakoun

Blog Post

Are Capital Expenditures Getting Too Expensive?

Regional Matters

May 05, 2023

Since the second half of 2022, we have observed firms increasingly pulling back on capital expenditures. This post explores the recent declines in capital investment using data from The CFO Survey and the Richmond Fed monthly business surveys.

Zach Edwards

Podcast

Business Expectations for 2023

Speaking of the Economy

April 12, 2023

Jason Kosakow and Sonya Waddell discuss the expectations of regional and national business leaders about the economy, based on responses to the CFO Survey and the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond's regional business surveys during the first quarter of 2023.

Working Paper

Supply Chain Resilience: Evidence from Indian Firms

Working Paper Series

December 2022, No. 22-11

In this paper, we use new data on daily firm-to-firm transactions from India, coupled with a large exogenous shock that disrupted supply chains to varying degrees.

Gaurav Khanna, Nicolas Morales and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Article

What Makes Supply Chains More Resilient to Economic Shocks?

Economic Brief

November 2022, No. 22-46

The lockdowns resulting from COVID-19 provide an opportunity to examine what factors affect the strength of supply chains.

Claire Conzelmann, Nicolas Morales, Gaurav Khanna and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Speech

Close-up of hands of person using a tablet computer

The Evolution of Technological Disruption

Oct. 3, 2022

President Barkin reflects on the relationship between technological innovation, the economy and monetary policy.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

The Economic History of the Shopping Mall — and Its Future (Yes, It Does Have One)

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2022

Malls have been a part of the American cultural and economic fabric for generations. How will they survive recessions, the rise of online shopping, and a pandemic?

Matthew Wells

Article

Supply Chain Disruptions, Inflation, and the Fed

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2022

Today's inflationary snarls reflect both supply shocks and policy stimulus.

John Mullin

Blog Post

a worker outside a large pile of shipping containers

Are Recession Fears Replacing Supply Chain Challenges? Evidence from Fifth District Business Surveys

Regional Matters

September 1, 2022

Supply chain disruptions and fluctuating input costs are improving for some Fifth District firms, but the threat of a recession looms large according to August's surveys of businesses.

Zach Edwards

Article

hardcopy review of documents with binders of salaries and payroll nearby

Measuring Employers’ Market Power

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2022

How competitive is the U.S. labor market? Answering this question quantitatively is helpful for understanding how wages are affected by labor market power, and thus for understanding how workers will be affected by labor policy choices.

Abhimanyu Banerjee

Blog Post

Firms have recently been able to better meet customer demand, perhaps due to a cooling economy.

What's Behind Firms' Reported Improvements in Meeting Demand?

Regional Matters

July 14, 2022

Fifth District firms recently reported being able to better meet customer demand. A cooling economy may be part of the story.

Jason Kosakow
Survey Director

Article

Screen of trades being done in the over-the-counter market, such as corporate bonds.

Information and Core-Periphery Structure in Over-the-Counter Markets

Economic Brief

June 2022, No. 22-23

In the OTC market for credit default swaps, some investors are more central within the trading network than others.

Nicholas Trachter

Speech

Team planning in a conference room with a colleague on a hybrid video call

Rethinking the Office

May 26, 2022

President Tom Barkin discusses how firms can optimize the hybrid work environment.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Industrial Development and Convergence

Honoring Marvin Goodfriend

May 2022

In this essay, we describe Marvin Goodfriend's Industrial Development model and ponder its lessons for contemporary policy discussions.

Sergio T. Rebelo and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte

Blog Post

Goods Riddance

Macro Minute

April 5, 2022

Purchases of durable goods have been moderating after experiencing a surge during the pandemic. But is this due to falling demand or constrained supplies?

John O'Trakoun

Article

Globe in the foreground and a ship in the background

How Does Trade Policy Get Decided?

Economic Brief

March 2022, No. 22-11

Consumers who would benefit from lower tariffs on a good tend to matter more when setting trade policy than producers who want higher tariffs.

Santiago Pinto

Blog Post

Supply and Demand: When Will We See Balance?

Regional Matters

February 25, 2022

Fifth District firms report that two years into the pandemic, they still cannot provide enough goods and services to completely meet customer demand.

Jason Kosakow and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Blog Post

Services Hitting a Snag on Snarled Supply Chains?

Macro Minute

February 1, 2022

The New York Fed recently combined a variety of indicators into a single measure of global supply chain pressure. Plotting this index against the Richmond Fed's "prices paid" measurements from its business activity surveys can provide a window into the effects of supply disruptions on the Fifth Federal Reserve District.

John O'Trakoun

Blog Post

Omicron Ominous Overseas

Macro Minute

December 28, 2021

The emergence of a new COVID-19 variant poses risks to next year's economic outlook, especially if a spike in cases leads to supply disruptions in China and higher prices for Chinese imports.

John O'Trakoun

Blog Post

For Want of a Nail

Macro Minute

November 16, 2021

Doing a deep dive into inventory-to-sales ratios can yield insights into supply chain issues during the COVID-19 pandemic.

John O'Trakoun

Blog Post

We’re All Out: Firms Struggle to Fully Meet Customer Demand

Regional Matters

November 5, 2021

Amid labor shortages and supply side disruptions, firms are struggling to fully meet demand and many reported they expect this issue to persist.

Roisin McCord

Blog Post

Are Logistical Bottlenecks Easing Yet?

Macro Minute

October 5, 2021

Recent data from the Institute for Supply Management and other sources offer early indications of whether and how much supply chain disruptions have eased.

John O'Trakoun

Blog Post

Demand for Goods Grows: Will Manufacturers Be Able to Meet It?

Regional Matters

September 2, 2021

Manufacturers have recently seen an increase in orders, but disruptions in the supply chain have made meeting demand a challenge.

Roisin McCord and Alexander Nikolov

Article

Bolstering Regional Economies

Econ Focus

Second/Third Quarter 2021

Some policymakers, researchers, and commentators have expressed their belief that a concerted federal investment in technology, or in research and development, can help level the playing field nationwide and spur economic growth. But is it optimal for all localities to specialize in the same sorts of industries?

Neeraja Deshpande

Article

Inside car view of man driving down road with farmlands surrounding

When Interstates Paved the Way

Econ Focus

Second/Third Quarter 2021

The construction of the Interstate Highway System helped to develop the U.S. economy.

Hailey Phelps

Working Paper

Is Money Essential? An Experimental Approach (Revised June 2023)

Working Paper Series

July 2021, No. 21-12R

Sometimes money gets used when it should not, and we investigate why using surveys plus measures.

Janet Hua Jiang, Peter Norman, Daniela Puzzello, Bruno Sultanum and Randall Wright

Blog Post

Eyes on the Roads (and Bridges) in the Fifth District

Regional Matters

June 29, 2021

This post looks at the current assessment of roads and bridges in the Fifth District and how states have recently allocated federal funds.

Joseph Mengedoth and Alexander Nikolov

Speech

Two women using hand sanitizer in a business

What Could Happen if We Keep Washing Our Hands?

June 22, 2021

Flu incidence declined dramatically during the pandemic. If that were to continue, we could see large social and economic gains, writes President Tom Barkin in his latest essay.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

On Remote Work, Markets Will Decide

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2021

How much reshuffling of businesses and residents will we see among cities, suburbs, and rural areas? The answer will have important implications for local economies.

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Blog Post

Demand Is Up, But Can Supply Match It?

Regional Matters

May 3, 2021

The economic recovery enabled by the vaccine rollout has increased demand for Fifth District goods and services. But can supply keep up with demand?

Jacob Crouse and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Podcast

The CFO Survey: A Window into the Past and the Future

Speaking of the Economy

April 14, 2021

Sonya Waddell, Brent Meyer and John Graham discuss the latest results of the quarterly CFO Survey.

Speech

To Invest in Infrastructure, Invest in People

Feb. 24, 2021

President Tom Barkin discusses the importance of training the next generation of infrastructure workers.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Man working from home with his faithful dog at his side

The Future “Hybrid” Office

Feb. 1, 2021

President Tom Barkin talks about the pandemic’s lasting influence on office life.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Furniture Faces a New Challenge

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2020

Tom Barkin travelled to Hickory, N.C. to take part in a video roundtable with industry leaders. These included five area furniture manufacturing companies, textile suppliers and more.

Tom Barkin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Article

The Rise and Sudden Decline of North Carolina Furniture Making

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2020

In just 10 years, between 1999 and 2009, North Carolina's furniture manufacturing industry lost more than half of its jobs.

John Mullin

Article

Unpacking the Meat Industry

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2020

Changes in the meat supply chain have brought benefits, but are vulnerabilities a cause for concern?

Emily Green

Article

What Makes Companies Invest?

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2020

Decisions about investment at the firm level are important to the path of economic growth

Hailey Phelps

Podcast

A Look at the Carolinas Economy

Speaking of the Economy

Dec. 16, 2020

Matt Martin provides his take on the tumultuous year that was 2020 and how it impacted economic conditions in North Carolina and South Carolina.

Speech

What’s Ahead? Learning From The CFO Survey

Oct. 15, 2020

Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin discussed the latest CFO Survey results and their implications for the economy at a webinar hosted by the Economic Club of New York.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

Descriptive image of a manufacturing plant

Idea Diffusion and Property Rights (Revised November 2023)

Working Paper Series

September 2020, No. 20-11R

We study innovation and diffusion of technology at the industry level. We derive an industry's evolution, from birth to its maturity, and we characterize how diffusion affects the incentive to innovate.

Boyan Jovanovic and Zhu Wang

Working Paper

Bubbles and the Value of Innovation

Working Paper Series

July 2020, No. 20-08

Episodes of booming innovation coincide with intense speculation in financial markets leading to bubbles — increases in market valuations and firm creation followed by a crash.

Valentin Haddad, Paul Ho and Erik Loualiche

Blog Post

What Businesses are Saying About the COVID Crisis

Regional Matters

May 29, 2020

While most businesses surveyed have suffered some negative effects and loss of revenue as result of COVID-19, most remained open and operating, at least partially.

Roisin McCord and Joseph Mengedoth

Working Paper

A place for manufacturing in a rural setting

Plants in Space

Working Paper Series

May 2020, No. 20-05

In this paper, we aim to provide insights into two main questions: First, which firms set up plants in which locations? Second, what determine the scale and location of production? Answering these questions requires us to think about plants and firms as distinct, albeit related, economic entities.

Ezra Oberfield, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Nicholas Trachter

Working Paper

Is There News in Inventories?

Working Paper Series

May 2020, No. 20-03

This paper identifies total factor productivity (TFP) news shocks using standard VAR methodology and documents a new stylized fact: in response to news about future increases in TFP, inventories rise and comove positively with other major macroeconomic aggregates.

Christoph Gortz, Christopher Gunn and Thomas A. Lubik

Speech

The Path to Full Recovery

May 4, 2020

President Tom Barkin wrote about the potential longer-term impact of COVID-19.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Venture Capital Grows Up

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2019

VC: An American History is an accessible business history of the industry, one that policymakers nationwide and, indeed, worldwide can learn from in thinking about how to encourage investment in startup innovation.

David A. Price

Article

Janice Eberly

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2019

Northwestern University economist on firms' investment decisions, intangible capital, and the college premium

Jessie Romero

Speech

The Effects of Market Concentration on Suppliers

May 16, 2019

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke May 16, 2019 at the Richmond Fed’s “Market Structure and the Macroeconomy” conference.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Sentiment and the Real Economy

May 15, 2019

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke May 15, 2019, to the New York Association for Business Economics.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

A Practitioner’s Perspective on the Productivity Slowdown

April 4, 2019

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke at the Virginia Association of Economists Annual Meeting on April 4, 2019, in Richmond.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Ensuring Longer-Term Growth

Jan. 10, 2019

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke January 10, 2019, in Raleigh to the Greater Raleigh Chamber of Commerce at its 2019 Economic Forecast event.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

The Outlook for Growth

Jan. 4, 2019

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke January 4, 2019, at the Maryland Bankers Association’s First Friday Economic Outlook Forum in Baltimore.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

The Outlook for Tomorrow: Five Numbers to Watch

Oct. 3, 2018

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin spoke on the national economic outlook October 3, 2018, in Charleston, West Virginia.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Blog Post

Industry Diversity in Cities

Regional Matters

May 9, 2018

Charlotte, N.C., has the most diverse industrial mix of any Fifth District city. What causes industry diversity in cities?

Michael Stanley

Article

Building the Aerospace Cluster in South Carolina

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2014

State governments that recognize the tremendous economic value that aircraft manufacturing can bring their communities are actively courting such plants to bolster their aerospace clusters.

Richard Kaglic

Article

The Unconventional Oil and Gas Boom

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2014

U.S. energy production has risen sharply in recent years and is expected to continue to grow at remarkable rates in coming decades — with benefits for the U.S. economy overall as well as within the Fifth District.

R. Andrew Bauer
Vice President and Regional Executive

Working Paper

Whither North Carolina Furniture Manufacturing?

Working Paper Series

September 2004, No. 04-7

Robert L. Lacy

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